Forecast and Targets

Please read our caution about Forward-Looking Statements in the Conditions of Use when using this information.

Sales and Earnings Forecast

(published on July 27, 2016 in the Interim Report Second Quarter 2016)

Economic Outlook

The forecasts for the alternative performance indicators EBITDA before special items, core earnings per share and currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales changes have been calculated in line with the reporting principles applied in preparing the financial statements and the adjustments described in Interim Report Second Quarter 2016, Chapter Calculation of EBIT(DA) Before Special Items and (Core) Earnings Per Share.

We have adjusted the exchange rates relevant to our forecast to reflect current developments. For the second half of 2016 we are now using the exchange rates prevailing on June 30, 2016, including a EUR-USD rate of 1.11. A 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales on an annual basis by some €300 million and EBITDA before special items by about €90 million.

Following the signing in May 2016 of an agreement to sell the Consumer business of Environmental Science in the Crop Science Division, this business is no longer included in continuing operations and therefore is no longer included in the forecast.

The following forecast for the current fiscal year is based on the business development described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities and assuming the inclusion of the Covestro business for the full year.

Bayer Group

For 2016, we are now planning sales of €46 billion to €47 billion (previously: more than €47 billion) for the Bayer Group, including Covestro. This continues to correspond to a low-single-digit percentage increase on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We now plan to increase EBITDA before special items by a high-single-digit (previously: mid-single-digit) percentage. It is now our aim to increase core earnings per share from continuing operations (calculated as explained in Interim Report Second Quarter 2016, Chapter “(Core) Earnings Per Share”) by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage (previously: a mid-single-digit percentage). This takes into account Covestro’s inclusion at around 64% starting on April 19, 2016 (January 1 to April 18, 2016: around 69%).

Life Sciences total

We continue to plan sales of approximately €35 billion for the Life Science activities, i.e. the Bayer Group excluding Covestro. This still corresponds to a mid-single-digit percentage increase on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis as previously forecasted. We now plan to increase EBITDA before special items by a mid- to high-single-digit (previously: mid-single-digit) percentage. Our planning includes dissynergies of around €130 million from the legal independence of Covestro and from divestments.

Pharmaceuticals

For Pharmaceuticals, we now expect sales above €16 billion (previously: approximately €16 billion) despite some price decreases. This now corresponds to a high-single-digit (previously: mid-single-digit) percentage increase on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We now plan to raise sales of our recently launched pharmaceutical products toward €5.5 billion (previously: to more than €5 billion). We now expect a low-teens (previously: mid- to high-single-digit) percentage increase in EBITDA before special items. We aim to improve the EBITDA margin before special items.

Consumer Health

In the Consumer Health Division, we now expect sales to come in at approximately €6 billion (previously: more than €6 billion). We now plan to grow sales by a low- to mid-single-digit (previously: mid-single-digit) percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We now expect EBITDA before special items to come in on the level of the prior year (previously: increase by a mid-single-digit percentage).

Crop Science

In light of the continuingly weak market environment, we now expect Crop Science sales to be on the prior-year level (previously: increase by a low-single-digit percentage) on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. This is equivalent to reported sales of about €10 billion. We now expect a low-single-digit percentage decrease (previously: low-single-digit percentage increase) in EBITDA before special items.

Animal Health

At Animal Health, we continue to expect sales to be slightly above the prior-year level. We are still planning a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales gain and an increase in EBITDA before special items, each by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage.

Reconciliation

For 2016, we now expect sales to come in at approximately €1 billion (previously: to be level with the previous year; 2015: €1.1 billion). We are now planning EBITDA before special items of roughly minus €0.1 billion (previously: minus €0.2 billion).

Covestro

For 2016, Covestro is now expecting a sales decline (previously: sales at the prior-year level) and, for the second half of 2016, EBITDA after adjustment for special items at least at the prior-year level (previously: for the full year, a decline in EBITDA after adjustment for special items).

Further key data for the Bayer Group

We continue to expect special charges in the region of €0.5 billion in 2016, with the integration of the acquired consumer care businesses and charges in connection with the reorganization of the Bayer Group accounting for most of this amount.

Our prediction for the financial result is unchanged at around minus €1.2 billion. The effective tax rate is still likely to be about 24%. We continue to expect net financial debt at below €16 billion at the end of 2016.

Further details of the business forecast are provided in our Annual Report 2015, Forecast for Key Data.

 

Sales and Earnings Forecast

(published on April 26, 2016 in the Interim Report First Quarter 2016)

Economic Outlook

Based on the business development described in this report and taking into account the potential risks and opportunities as well as the prevailing currency environment, we are confirming the forecast we published in February (see Annual Report 2015, Chapter 18.2).

 

Sales and Earnings Forecast

(published on February 25, 2016 in the Annual Report 2015)

Economic Outlook

Forecast for Key Data

Last updated: July 27, 2016 Copyright © Bayer AG