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Outlook and Targets
Please read our caution about Forward-Looking Statements in the Conditions of Use when using this information.
(published on October 30, 2019 in the Quarterly Statement Q3 2019)
Based on the business development described in this report and our internal planning, we confirm the Group outlook for fiscal 2019 published in February in our Annual Report 2018 despite falling growth expectations worldwide.
This original forecast was issued on the basis of all businesses being continuing operations. The envisaged portfolio measures (in particular the sale of Animal Health and Currenta) were not taken into account at that time since the timing of the divestments was not yet sufficiently certain. However, the progress we have since made on implementing these portfolio measures necessitates adjusting the original forecast to exclude the sales and earnings contributions from the discontinued operations Animal Health and the Currenta Group. The need for these adjustments arises solely from a change in presentation in the financial statements. The table below shows the original forecast alongside the adjusted forecast, which excludes the business entities now reported as discontinued operations.
Bayer Group Key Financial Data – Forecast for 2019
Original 2019 forecast1
2019 forecast adjusted to exclude discontinued operations (Animal Health & Currenta)
|Group sales||Increase of approx. 4%2||Increase of approx. 4%2|
|Approx. €46 billion||Approx. €43 billion|
|EBITDA before special items||Approx. €12.2 billion||Approx. €11.6 billion|
|Core earnings per share||Approx. €6.80||Approx. €6.45|
1 Issued in February 2019; including Animal Health and Currenta
2 Currency- and portfolio-adjusted
To enhance comparability, we issue our forecast on a currency-adjusted basis. Based on current exchange rates, we anticipate Group sales of approximately €43.5 billion, EBITDA before special items of approximately €11.5 billion, and core earnings per share of €6.35.
(published on February 27, 2019 in the Annual Report 2018)
The following forecast is based on the current business development and our internal planning.
To enhance the comparability of operating performance, the forecasts are adjusted for currency effects5. We do not anticipate any material changes in our forecast if the closing rates as of December 31, 2018, are used as a basis. A 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales on an annual basis by some €340 million and EBITDA before special items by about €100 million.
5 The average monthly exchange rates from 2018 (see Annual Report 2018, table “Exchange Rates for Major Currencies” in Note “Basic principles, methods and critical accounting estimates” ) were applied.
We confirm the forecasts for 2019 and the medium-term targets for 2022 that we provided in conjunction with our Capital Markets Day on December 5, 2018. For 2019, we expect sales to amount to around €46 billion. This corresponds to an increase of approximately 4% on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We aim to increase EBITDA before special items to approximately €12.2 billion on a currency-adjusted basis, while core earnings per share are seen rising to approximately €6.80 on a currency-adjusted basis.
Bayer Group Key Data – Forecast for 2019
|2018 figures||2019 forecast|
|€ billion||Fx & p adj. Change (%)||€ billion|| |
Fx & p adj. Change (%)
|Margin (%)||Margin (%)|
|EBITDA before special items1||9.5||24.1||~12.2||~27|
|Financial result (core)2||(1.3)||~(1.8)|
|Tax rate (core)3||20.6 %||~ 23%|
|Free cash flow1||4.7||~3 – 4|
|Net financial debt1,4||35.7||~36|
Fx & p adj. = currency- and portfolio-adjusted
1 For definition see Chapter “Alternative Performance Measures Used by the Bayer Group.”
2 Financial result before special items
3 (Income taxes + special items in income taxes + tax effects on adjustments) / (core EBIT + financial result + special items in financial result)
4 For 2019, including a lease liability of approximately €1.1 billion under IFRS 16
We expect substantial special charges in 2019, mainly in connection with restructuring measures.
The first-time application of IFRS 16 is expected to result in an around €0.3 billion increase in EBITDA before special items compared with the previous year. We also anticipate that free cash flow will rise by approximately €0.3 billion and net financial debt by approximately €1.1 billion due to this effect.